Jon Rahm vs The Average Joe: Augusta National

At the start of last week’s Masters, you probably experienced some immediate regret if you had Jon Rahm in your Masters' pool, when he started with a four-putt double bogey. However, it's fair to say that many of us “average Joes” would most likely struggle in similar circumstances. If I were to hazard a guess, the average golfer, with the pressures of the Masters and the challenging course conditions, would probably take 6 putts, maybe more.  

Many of us may never get the opportunity to play at Augusta or with Rahm, but Arccos can give you some insight into how that round might look. 

We paired Rahm’s data with Arccos’ data to provide you with an exclusive look into how an average player would measure up against him. My Golf Spy recently published the Arccos distance report that they called “the official distance report”, which showcases data tracked and analysed from over 20 million driver shots from Arccos members. The report further examines the Arccos figures by age, handicap, and gender.

Looking at the chart below, you’ll see how Rahm’s driving distance, at the Masters, would compare to an average 5 to 10 handicap male, based on different ages.

(If you’re a higher or lower handicap, be sure to check out the Arccos Distance Report to compare your age and handicap bracket.)

No surprise here, that the average Joe is quite short compared to Rahm, who’s known for being one of the longer players on tour. Time to hit the gym… or maybe we can make up some shots at Amen Corner.

Augusta’s famous for its unrivalled beauty, set-up, and traditions, but it’s also famous for its demanding layout and lightning fast greens. We consulted with Arccos’ Data Insights Lead, Lou Stagner, on what an amateur might shoot on Amen Corner and layered it with Rahm’s average performance through the four days.  

The information is extracted from our 675 million shot Arccos dataset, and without adding any adjustments for Masters conditions yet, here is what those holes might look like for the average 5-handicap amateur.

Hole #11 (White Dogwood). The par 4 lays at 520 yards, running downhill off the tee with a green guarded by a pond and bunker. 

 Hole #12 (Golden Bell). The famous par 3 sits at 155 yards surrounded by bunkers and Rae’s Creek, intimidating you to not come up short.

Hole #13 (Azalea). The par 5 recently was lengthened to 545 yards. With the extra yardage, we might want to consider it more like a par 6 for our self-esteem. As Lou Stagner preaches, #ManageYourExpectations.

As a general opinion here, taking into consideration Masters' conditions… maybe add 2 to 3 extra strokes per hole, potentially 5, if you had to play in Saturday’s weather. Lou’s strategic and more realistic guess though is to probably add 0.25 to 0.5 strokes per hole, for Masters pressure.